Aug 31, 2021
A great event in the economic life in the future, is a global currency war.The so-called currency wars, in fact, is the world's major economies, as much as possible to promote their own currencies, to boost exports, more jobs and economic growth.The source of the currency war and the main force, is the U.S. government, in an attempt to take advantage of major economic strategic interests, therefore caused from around the world to the defense of their own interests.
The result of the currency war, will push up from five aspects non-ferrous metal prices.
The first aspect is the substantial depreciation of dollar continued, direct driving Gao Guoji market prices.As mentioned above, the United States is the first of the currency war.As a result of the objective necessity, as well as the subjective actively promote, the substantial depreciation of dollar sustainable situation is inevitable in the future.Is expected in the short term, compared to a basket of currencies of the dollar index is likely to fall to 60 mark, appear even bigger losses.And as the dollar as the numeraire of international commodity market and the situation of trade settlement currency, in the short term is difficult to change, therefore, the dollar sharply lower, will directly push Gao Guoji market copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and other non-ferrous metal smelting and their raw materials prices.
The second aspect is the "double-edged sword" effect on the appreciation of the RMB.Because of some factors, in the currency war, there will be more substantial renminbi appreciation.On June 19, statistics show that from the people's bank of China decided to further increase the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, less than four months (14 October), the yuan appreciation of nearly 2.5% against the dollar.The last month of the appreciation of 1.2%.Due to the current and future appreciation of the renminbi is expected has been formed, and more strongly.The dollar and the RMB exchange rate is expected to 2011 years are likely to see 1:6, even a higher level.
For smelting non-ferrous metal and its main raw material prices, the appreciation of the renminbi is a "double-edged sword".Although after the appreciation of the renminbi currency units purchasing power increase, can reduce the cost of imports of the metal and its smelting materials accordingly, greatly alleviate the pressure of the type's current cost rise.But at the same time, the unit to the improvement of purchasing power, non-ferrous metal for the international market, it is a great encouragement.For example, in the middle of September, after the central bank announced that enhance the RMB exchange rate floating range raises the domestic and foreign non-ferrous metals prices rose.Can, therefore, the appreciation of the renminbi will reduce the China non-ferrous metal smelting and raw materials import prices, or an uncertain factor.Key lies in the fact that the appreciation of the cost of imports down, can completely offset the purchasing power of the dollar, "hot money" inflow, sparked by the increase of price rise.Judging from the trend of the future, this situation is not optimistic.In the "double-edged sword effect" on the appreciation of the RMB, the effect of pushing up prices may outweigh the effect of lower prices.
The third aspect is commodity currency appreciation, it is necessary to improve the sales price reduce losses.In general, the current global currencies can be roughly divided into four categories.One kind is the dollar currency;Another kind is the European currency, mainly for the European currencies;Then there is the Asian currencies, such as east Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the currency.The last is Australia, Brazil and other countries in a large number of export products commodity currencies.
In the national currency, because Australian commodities such as national export situation is good, the income increase a lot.In order to guard against inflation, forced to raise interest rates, which led to a sharp rise in the currency.It is thought that in accordance with the current trend of development, the Australian dollar and the dollar's exchange rate could reach 1:1.The Australian dollar, currency, such as the currency's appreciation, will make these countries domestic enterprise of mineral resources, such as copper concentrate, bauxite, coal, and other products sales losses during the exchange rate, had to increase the sale price.
