Mar 31, 2019
As the quantitative easing of America early November the dust settles, the overall starting to affect the metal market systemic risk, from the domestic central bank liquidity to curb inflation and weaken to the state council, the national development and reform commission for excessive speculation forbidden to the European debt crisis erupted again, market long-short overnight shift.So for "supply" of refined zinc market still place, winter is really coming?
The author thinks that, inflation and the economy is in good recovery backdrop, zinc prices are still rising channel, mid and short term systemic risk and weak fundamentals make zinc prices are still falling risk, but the domestic government for money market control or do more signals will be in the market.
Second, the macro analysis in the future
1.Rebound in the dollar
Still have the motive force to go to rush years dollars.
First, American politics and the economy is bad for the dollar continues to fall.Early November mid-term congressional elections in the United States, the republican party to the larger advantage to retake control of the house of representatives.The possibility of future fed again loose monetary policy is very small, and since has dropped sharply in the previous bad news has basic digestion of quantitative easing, therefore the policy surface has no downside risk.Terms of the economy at the same time, the most important jobs data has appeared in the last month signs of stabilization, both in the PMI index and consumer confidence index has more than 50 points on the site, means that the U.S. economy is in recovery.Therefore, the political and economic recovery is not continue to support the dollar devaluation will fall.
Second, the European debt crisis and the latent problem of north and South Korea.Throughout history, the dollar rebounded sharply, often with crisis, crisis, whether the financial crisis or war in the first half of the year, the dollar also helped by the outbreak of the Greek debt crisis.North Korea recently increased militarisation, threat of war between the two countries may also will cause the market investors will first dollar sentiment to heat up, so the crisis is boosting the dollar will be the second factor.
Third, break a short-term technical form.In early November low of $74 or so in the history of the dollar has belongs to a lower level, so the dollar in the range of existing strong rebound in demand, and from the rebound, the dollar index has break downward pressure on top of the line, and on the gold line around 80.5, rose keep good form, and pressure from above to see the overall technology temporarily no, MACD continue to radiate upward, andalusite magnifying trend is good, high divergent KDJ indicators, the overall technology to maintain good.While continuous rise after a certain amount of adjustment demand, but the technical surface rise is expected after the adjustment will continue.
Based on the above three points, we believe that this wave of rebound will likely face a technical adjustment, but during the year or early next year, the overall trend of the rebound in the dollar will remain, for the price of the metal may produce bigger impact.
2.Domestic policy
By recent policy changes, no matter from price or from the overall market liquidity have apparent cooling on hype, but because at the beginning of the end of last year to this year the overall CPI is low, which makes the probability of the next two months he was increased, and the one-year bill rate has reached to 2.8145, higher than the one-year deposit rate of 2.5%, showing a reversed transmission.In overall liquidity and CPI may hit a record high against the background of, does not exclude the government regulation and policy, and then to the market again.
To sum up, from the point of years, the overall macro background for the price of the metal or will produce obvious suppression effect, but the turning point of the crackdown on or will occur in the central bank to raise interest rates or tougher policy prices down, the market will probably make the show more opportunities.
Three fundamental analysis, zinc
1.Domestic production rise significantly
From the point of the second half of the domestic refined zinc production, presented the "V" type change, and hit a record high in October.Affected by the energy conservation and emissions reduction, electricity makes the start many businesses in the second half of the overall capacity utilization is very low, the overall production capacity of 600000 t/year, time of about 12% of the monthly production capacity, which in turn caused the decrease of production, and then as the zinc prices have risen sharply, the zinc increase enterprise profit space, caused a large number of zinc smelting enterprises starts to rise.For the supply of refined zinc industry already it is not a good sign.Supply pattern in the short term, therefore, refined zinc in zinc under the action of enterprise production is more apparent, but as the 12th five-year plan for capacity building of the new rolled out, and the elimination of backward production capacity, we have refined zinc recovery optimism by the fundamentals.
2.Consumption into the off-season
Domestic social inventory statistics data show that domestic refined zinc inventory remains continuously increasing trend, and historically high., therefore, the current domestic overall consumption is still very weak, although the early stage of the countries are selling for a 50000 t, but the author thinks that this is only a means of countries to curb inflation, are not caused by zinc market supply shortage.With the arrival of winter, the refined zinc into the traditional consumption off-season, some areas due to reasons such as transportation, weather, can cause a shortage, but from the point of zinc overall consumption, winter explosive consumption is impossible, so a weak consumption situation of refined zinc market in the short term also can not get effective improvement, for the price of refined zinc will produce greater upward pressure.
3."Destocking" is still a long time
No matter domestic or abroad, the overall inventory remains at record highs.World metal organization, according to data released by the WBMS first nine months of 2010 the global zinc market oversupply 292000 t, the excess supply has a tendency to expand.And look from cancelled warrants, hit a record high in September 60000 showed a downward trend after t, the current overall cancelled warrants around 30000 t, visible market overall lack of confidence to the future consumption.Therefore, high inventories will limit zinc prices rose.
Fourth, the afternoon market judgment
Given the fundamentals and the macro to the combined impact of short-term zinc prices still has certain risk of falling, but in the long run, inflation expectations and the domestic good economic growth we remain upbeat on zinc prices rise space.Recommends that investors short range oscillation operation ideas, can be appropriately on rallies empty, waiting for the government to raise interest rates or other regulatory policy appropriate dips in the single, at the same time, continue to focus on zinc period now price fluctuations, in liquidity under the action of strong and weak fundamentals, now there is still a widening gap between may.
